Before I go any further, I know what you might be thinking: Why exactly should I listen to this guy?1
If so, look no further — every bet I’ve placed since sports betting became legal in 2024 is on display here. (thank you, Juice Reel).
Related: If you’re a bettor who wants to figure out exactly what’s working (and what isn’t), I strongly recommend Juice Reel.
Going 7-8-1 (Week 1) and 7-9 (Week 2)2 on my NFL picks against the spread the first two weeks of the season (14-17-1 on the year 🤮) probably doesn’t mean I need to give up on them.
I will, however, do us all a favor and speed things up a bit by just listing my leans at publish time for every game.
Want to know why on any of these? Reply to this email and I’ll be happy to elaborate!
Programming note: I’ll be back tomorrow morning with best bets for CFB Week 4 and NFL Week 3 (player props, team totals, who knows what else3).
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Preview
It’s almost impossible to overstate how pitiful the Falcons looked with Cooper Rush and, briefly, Jack Strand under center the first two weeks.
In fact, they didn’t enter the red zone a single time against either the Steelers or the Panthers.
And yet, not only are plenty of bettors on the Falcons at +4.5 tonight, but I don’t totally blame them. Michael Penix Jr. represents a massive upgrade. Whether he’ll actually have a big night is a separate question, but his presence dramatically raises the floor for the talented Falcons offense, if nothing else.
Green Bay is playing well defensively, but the Packers’ O-line is in shambles. That group was struggling already, and it will be without right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks tonight against a Falcons D-line that has quietly been rock-solid in two ugly losses.
I like Under 43.5 (-118 at FD) better than either side of the spread, but gun to my head, I’m going to talk myself into the Falcons keeping it close from start to finish in another head-scratching eyesore on TNF.
That’s right, I like Falcons +4.5 (-104 at FD) better than I like GB -4.5. And yes, I’m aware they have been outscored 54-16.
You’ve probably heard a ton about how favorable this matchup is for Drake London and Kyle Pitts on the player props front, too. I don’t disagree, but I like Bijan Robinson to have as good a night — both on the ground and as a receiver — as either of those two.
Week 3 NFL Picks Against The Spread
Lines via FD as of Thursday afternoon, all times ET …
2025 record YTD:
Falcons (+4.5) at Packers — Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Panthers (-2.5) at Browns — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Jets (+6.5) at Lions — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Patriots at Jaguars (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Texans (-1.5) at Colts — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Chargers at Bills (-7.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Chiefs (-10.5) at Dolphins — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Bengals (-3.5) at Steelers — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Seahawks (-7.5)* at Commanders — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Titans (+2.5) at Giants — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Cardinals (+8.5)** at 49ers — Sunday, 4 p.m.
Vikings (-1.5) at Buccaneers — Sunday, 4 p.m.
Ravens vs. Cowboys (+3.5) in Rio de Janeiro — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Raiders vs. Saints (-3) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (fully expect a push here, btw)
Rams (-2.5) at Broncos — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Eagles at Bears 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️— Monday, 8:15 p.m. … massive STAY-AWAY, but if I have to pick, give me PHI -4.5
*Until something changes, I’m planning on taking Cincinnati and/or Seattle to cover every week. If and when one or both starts laying 10 points or more every Sunday, I’ll reevaluate, but that’s how bullish I am on both of those teams at the moment.
**I’ve gotta take at least one of the heavy underdogs this weekend, don’t I?
1 Fair question!
2 I’m telling myself I would have been profitable (or at least gone 8-8) if not for the injuries to Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart
3 probably a handful of first-half unders??
