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Favorites went 9-6-1 ATS in Week 1. The Raiders, Steelers, Jaguars, Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Bengals, Vikings and Bills all covered as favorites, while the Seahawks pushed (if you got that one at SEA -3).

The six underdogs that covered included four outright winners — San Francisco, the New York Jets, the Giants and Arizona — and the Saints and Commanders both covered in a losing effort.

DISCLAIMER: Most people would tell you that betting and/or publicly picking every single NFL regular-season game against the spread is a great way to lose a ton of money and/or look like an absolute 🤡 for all to see.

Week 1/YTD record: 7-8-1*

*Hand up: Last week, I wrote that the Jags would be way too much for the Browns, then blanked out and wrote “Browns -8.5” as the pick 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️. I’m still counting that one as correct, even if it requires an asterisk.

I’ll do my best to pay closer attention and/or find a proofreader ASAP …¹

Skip to the game(s) you care about by clicking below.

Note: odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon.

As always, if you’re going to listen to one thing I say, ever, please do us both a favor and A) shop around and/or B) bet as early in the week as possible if you insist on betting on NFL games ATS.

Note: this game’s spread opened at Bills -3.

After their road win over Houston in Week 1, the Bills (1-0) look like legit Super Bowl contenders entering Week 2. And yes, I saw Kamari Lassiter’s dropped interception that should have sealed the home upset by the Texans.

Laying 4.5 points with the favorites is certainly risky, especially on TNF against a good offensive opponent like Detroit (1-0). Still, I trust Buffalo to light up the banged-up Detroit defense², which gave up 29 (!) first downs and 469 yards of offense to the Saints last week.

PICK: BUF -4.5

Note: No Week 2 opening line moved faster than this one. It has already flipped from Falcons -1.5 to Panthers -2.5.

The Falcons (0-1) could be a tempting upset pick after the Panthers (0-1) were (literally) historically bad defensively against the Bears. In Week 2, Carolina is facing arguably the best RB in the league, Bijan Robinson, on the road.

But the Cooper Rush-led Falcons don’t strike me as a good bet to score enough to take down Bryce Young, especially if guard Chris Lindstrom (concussion) is out.

Young is 4-1 all-time vs. Atlanta, with a pair of lights-out performances in his last two trips to the Georgia Dome.

PICK: CAR -2.5

Note: Chicago, which opened as a 3.5-point favorite, is now laying 5.5.

The box score screamed that Minnesota, which scored 29 unanswered down the stretch of its win over Green Bay, is lucky to be 1-0. Chicago (1-0) might have a bottom-5 defense, but “elite” might be an understatement for the Bears offense.

Against anything short of a Super Bowl contender, I’m happy to take Chicago to win by at least a touchdown, especially at home. That’s more than a bit bold against a defense like the one led by Vikings DC Brian Flores, but I expect Caleb Williams and the Bears to cook all season.

PICK: CHI -5.5

Did any offense look worse in Week 1 than Tennessee’s? The 0-1 Titans were thumped by the Jets in Week 1, and they face a much tougher D in Week 2.

The Eagles (1-0) nearly ended up in overtime at home against the Commanders, but I’ll take them to roll in Nashville after Cam Ward (19-for-32, 140 yards, 1 TD, 0 interceptions, 3 sacks) and the Titans only managed 11 first downs against the Jets.

PICK: PHI -7

Finally, an underdog I like — at least to cover. New England (0-1) did everything but win on the road in Seattle, but I don’t see the Pats pulling away from Pittsburgh (1-0) without A.J. Brown in the lineup.

I also like the under if the total stays at 41.5.

Pick: PIT +5.5

Note: GB opened at -6.5 before the line moved in New York’s favor.

The Jets (1-0) face a much tougher offense than the one they shut down last week. I nevertheless expect New York to keep this game close against a Packers squad coming off a baffling collapse in Minnesota.

I still have questions about the Jets’ ceiling. We’ll get answers about that soon (they take on the Packers, Lions and Bears over the next three weeks) … but in the meantime, I like New York’s floor with Geno Smith under center to allow it to cover against a Packers squad (0-1) that had 12 penalties and two turnovers and gave up a 68-yard kickoff return in Week 1.

PICK: NYJ +4.5

The Browns (0-1) probably won’t get blown out every week that Deshaun Watson is under center. I won’t be taking them to cover against a playoff contender any time soon, though, no matter how many points they’re catching.

Tampa (0-1) might not jump out to a 24-0 lead like Jacksonville did vs. Cleveland in Week 1, but I do like the Bucs to win this game comfortably.

PICK: TB -8.5

The Ravens (1-0) were as impressive as any team in the league, blowing out the Colts in Indy in Week 1. Baltimore could miss star WR Zay Flowers in a big way if he’s limited or out (he’s questionable with a hamstring injury), and the Saints (0-1) remain underrated after coming up just short of a road upset of the Lions in Week 1.

It might take another late rally for the Saints to cover, but I like them at +8.5, even after the four NFC South teams went 0-4 (1-3 ATS) in Week 1.

PICK: NO +8.5

Joe Burrow and the Bengals (1-0) largely lived up to the offseason hype in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In addition to a mostly efficient offensive performance (pros: 26 first downs; cons: 2-for-5 in the red zone), Cincinnati’s defense looked much improved, forcing four turnovers, holding the Bucs to 5.4 yards per play, and allowing just 20 points (Tampa’s 27-point output was aided by a defensive touchdown).

The Texans (0-1) are probably going to win and/or cover at home more often than not this season, including this weekend. I’d take Cincinnati at +3 or +3.5, but I’ll reluctantly take HOU at -2.5 here.

PICK: HOU -2.5

Jacksonville (1-0) winning this one outright wouldn’t surprise me at all. The Broncos (0-1), who beat up on a ton of bad quarterbacks en route to last year’s impressive 14-3 record, looked awful on both sides of the ball in Kansas City on Monday night.

The Jaguars have quietly been one of the best regular-season teams in the league dating back to last October, and I expect them to — at minimum — keep this one close.

PICK: JAX +2.5

This spread is a bit of a head-scratcher. I understand why L.A. (0-1) was considered a contender in the AFC throughout the offseason, but this team’s season-opening loss to Arizona didn’t look like a fluke to me. If anything, based on what we saw last Sunday, the well-documented issues on the interior of the Chargers’ offensive line might be even worse than anyone thought.

Vegas could be a live dog even if star TE Brock Bowers remains out of the picture. If he’s back, the Raiders have a real chance to enter Week 3 as one of the biggest surprises in the league at 2-0. If nothing else, I love them to cover this spread.

PICK: LV +7

I’m not quite ready to predict that Dallas (0-1) will lose as a favorite to a division rival, again, in Week 2. The Cowboys defense certainly didn’t inspire much confidence in Sunday night’s loss to the Giants, though.

If Dallas couldn’t stop Jaxson Dart and the G-Men, I’m not sure why should we expect a better day against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders (0-1). Also notable: Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown and safety Malik Hooker will be out this week.

PICK: WAS +3.5

Seattle (1-0) should be able to shut down Arizona (1-0). But is taking Drew Lock to cover 4.5 points on the road a good idea? That’s one of the biggest questions of the week, but I’ll go with the reigning champs, who have a significant rest advantage after opening the season at home last Wednesday night.

A scary thought for Arizona and the rest of the league is that two key members of the Seattle defense — safeties Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada — were sidelined in Week 1. That unit still managed to hold Drake Maye and the Pats to just 10 points and a measly 4.1 yards per play, including just 4.7 yards per pass.

PICK: SEA -4.5

Miami was widely regarded as the worst team in the league entering Week 1. The Fins (0-1) did little to change that perception in a 27-13 loss to the Raiders, picking up just 13 first downs and allowing 5 sacks on 32 Malik Willis dropbacks.

Ashton Jeanty’s success on the ground vs. Miami (23 carries for 102 yards) tells me to expect a huge day by a Niners (1-0) ground game that chewed up the Rams in Australia last Thursday night.

I never feel great about either side of a spread this substantial, but give me the Niners to jump out to a big lead early, shut down Willis and Miami, and cover.

PICK: SF -13.5

The Chiefs (1-0) might have been the most impressive team in the league in Week 1, bullying the Broncos from start to finish. If the running game for KC looks anywhere near as good as it did last night (against a stout Denver defense, with an undrafted rookie starting at LT!), I’ll be taking the Chiefs to cover just about every week.

Daniel Jones and the Colts (0-1) didn’t look good on either side of the ball vs. Baltimore, as they were outscored 41-23 despite limiting the Ravens to just 3-for-9 on third down.

Give me Kansas City to win big at home in primetime for the second week in a row, especially if Jones’s legs (1 carry for 4 yards in Week 1) remain a non-factor.

PICK: KC -6.5

Discount it because of the Dallas defense if you want, but New York’s offense enjoyed an impressive debut under HC John Harbaugh and OC Matt Nagy.

The Giants ran for 165 yards in a Week 1 upset of Dallas, and Jaxson Dart made every throw he had to, finishing 23-for-29 for 230 yards and 3 TDs.

If Week 1, when the Rams surrendered 174 yards on 30 carries to San Francisco, was any indication, I love the Giants’ (1-0) chances to move the ball on the ground against a defense that will be without Myles Garrett and possibly Aaron Donald.

I also like the Giants D — which just held Dak Prescott to 5.1 yards per attempt — to at least keep Matthew Stafford in check.

PICK: NYG +7