DISCLAIMER: Most people would tell you that betting and/or publicly picking every single NFL regular-season game against the spread is a great way to lose a ton of money and/or look like an absolute 🤡 for all to see.

I nevertheless gave it a shot in both 2024 and 2025. I went 143-125-4 in 2025² and 90-82-7 through 12 weeks in 2024¹

On to the picks, soon, but first, let’s kick off the start of the NFL season (and CFB kicking into gear) with an abbreviated wish list from your favorite totally sane/rational/tortured thoroughly humbled longtime fan of the Panthers and NC State, 

(Skip to the game(s) you care about by clicking below. Also, please let me know if this actually, you know, works).

If it’s going to take hitting rock-bottom this fall for the Pack to call 14 (!!!!!!) years enough time with Dave Doeren at the helm, then let’s get to sinking (further), please. I would only pull against my own team if things were truly dire, but here we are …

Boo Corrigan, if for some reason you’re reading this, please respond by either A) silently nodding in agreement and making this change in a few months or B) explaining why you (rightfully) fired Kevin Keatts one year after the only real accomplishment by either of these programs in ~four~ decades but won’t do the right thing for the football program.

As recently as late in the 2023 season, this program was nothing short of a poor man’s Iowa (and I’m twisted enough to mean that as a compliment!) At this point, though, it’s a homeless man’s Iowa, a poor man’s Pitt, (insert comparable, respectable, but middling program here). 

Given the financial arms race that is maybe (definitely??) leaving this program in the dust as we speak, I am not convinced the next coach will consistently deliver something resembling adequacy as often as Doeren has. That being said, I’m ready to 

Note: odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon. If you’re going to listen to one thing I say, ever, please do us both a favor and A) shop around and/or B) bet as early in the week as possible if you insist on betting on NFL games ATS.

If Seattle were laying 3.5 points, I think the question marks in this secondary (Is Nick Emmanwori anywhere near 100%?; Will starting safety Ty Okada suit up?) would convince me to take the Pats. 

But I (still) love how Leonard Williams and the Seattle DL match up with the New England OL, and I trust Seattle to – at minimum – score just enough at home to cover tomorrow night.

PICK: SEATTLE -3

Starting off chalky by betting on both the Seahawks and the Rams to not only win, but cover, is probably too obvious to pay off, but I’m going with it anyway. 

Six (!) Niners starters on offense – McCaffrey, Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk – are currently listed as questionable, and another five (!) starters on D have an ominous “Q” next to their names right now.

Close as the battles between these teams always are, yeah, I like the clear Super Bowl favorites by 3.5.

PICK: RAMS -3.5

Right now, I can’t shake the feeling that this one is going to push. The absences of Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph (and possibly Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and D.J. Reed, too), just make it impossible for me to lay 7 points in Week 1, no matter how much I love the Detroit offense.

If there’s an obvious big name to target for player props bettors, it’s Saints WR Chris Olave, btw.

PICK: SAINTS +7

This “look at the injury report thing” has already gotten stale (ridiculously so), but once again, check out the injury report before backing the favorite.

It’s early in the week, but the Bears will be without safety Coby Bryant or nickel corner Kyler Gordon. Elsewhere in the secondary, starting corners Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson, as well as starting safety Xavier Woods, are all banged up.

Call me a homer and/or a dreamer for taking Bryce Young +3 vs. an offense as explosive as Chicago’s, but that’s where I’m leaning right now in what I expect to be a shootout.

PICK (🤷‍♂️): PANTHERS +3

At the risk of oversimplifying the “remember when Clemson was on top of the college football world bowl,” give me Trevor Lawrence and the reigning AFC South champs to cruise past a Browns team starting Deshaun Watson under center in 2026.

PICK: BROWNS -8.5

I’m bullish on the Ravens bouncing back from a rare letdown of a regular season, starting Sunday in Indy. Assuming Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones are both healthy (no sure thing), I’m taking the former in HC Jesse Minter’s Baltimore debut.

PICK: RAVENS -3.5

I didn’t quite love the vibes in Atlanta before Jalon Walker was ruled out of the season, James Pearce Jr. was suspended for eight games or Tua Tagovailoa was named the Week 1 starter. 

I understand why a lot of people will nevertheless back Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Co. to at least keep pace with the Aaron Rodgers-led favorites, but I like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown at home.

PICK: STEELERS -3.5

I expect the Bengals to make the playoffs, but in Week 1, I believe Tampa Bay will surprise some people. 

This is no secret among O-line enthusiasts, but Tampa has an excellent front five when that group is healthy. It wasn’t late last year, and the Bucs floundered down the stretch. In Week 1, give me a pissed-off Baker Mayfield to keep Tampa in this one for 60 minutes, especially if Emeka Egbuka and/or Jalen McMillan are in action.

PICK: BUCS +3.5

I’ll go by the book and back Josh Allen and Co. in pretty much any regular-season matchup. 

In Houston, though? Against a Texans defense that might be the most trustworthy unit in the entire league??

Also, assuming Houston’s overhauled O-line and/or (admittedly not 100% healthy) supporting cast around CJ Stroud are solid for the first time since his rookie year, I’ll take Texans +1.5 at home vs. anyone (including Buffalo).

PICK: TEXANS +1.5

My hottest take of the offseason might be that I think I (kinda) trust Geno Smith and the Jets? Smith was horrific behind a bad O-line in Oakland last year, and he’s about to be 36 years old …

But is it just me, or is Smith + the Jets’ solid, underrated OL + Breece Hall + Garrett Wilson a recipe for a solid offense??

I’d like to see Cam Ward and the Titans be solid, but I don’t trust them enough to cover against anyone, at least not yet. 

PICK: JETS +1.5

What’s a bigger deal to you: the upside that comes with the offseason hire of OC Mike McDaniel, or the colossal red flag that is the interior of the Chargers’ O-line??

Your answer will dictate whether you like Jacoby Brissett and Co. to cover as heavy underdogs. 

I’m painfully close to going with the Cardinals here. But I’ll trust McDaniel and Herbert – who is all too accustomed to bad O-line play at this point – to do enough for L.A. to win this one, IDK, 24-14, or something like that …

PICK: CHARGERS -8.5

Raise your hand if you know what to expect here. The only unit I totally trust in this game is the Philly D, though I imagine the Eagles offense will be solid, at worst, as long as OC Sean Mannion proves to be a decent hire.

Washington is enough of a wild card, especially offensively, to make me nervous about this one, but I’ll go with the chalk in a division rivalry clash. What could possibly go wrong?

PICK: EAGLES -5.5

Yet another game where the home favorite is laying 3.5 — There’s a reason oddsmakers do this so often. What I’m trying to say is that in general, this is a spread that sensible bettors would stay the hell away from.

That’s not an option here, though. I don’t know what to expect from either team this season (besides “probably not much.”)

I do expect the Raiders to be much better offensively than they were in 2025, though, so I’ll go with the home favorites at home in Klint Kubiak’s head coaching debut.

PICK: RAIDERS -3.5

From where I’m sitting, Kyler Murray’s ceiling under Kevin O’Connell is undeniable. I need a bit of proof of concept before taking Murray over Jordan Love, though.

I feel as uncertain about this one as any game on the board, but in a coin flip, I’ll take the team catching the points.

PICK: PACKERS +1.5

Most true sharps probably will either take the Giants at +3 at home or, you know, stay away. 

This Dallas offense looks to me like it will be better than it’s been in a long time, though. The Tyler Smith news (the All-Pro guard is headed to the IR) sucks for ‘Boys backers, both for Week 1 and beyond, but this unit is still loaded. 

I also think that this defense (and Cincinnati’s, but I digress) will finally be solid or better thanks to the offseason additions of up-and-coming coordinator Christian Parker, pass rusher Rashan Gary, (likely) star rookie³ Caleb Downs, and experienced DBs Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant. 

PICK: COWBOYS -3

Another one I firmly expect to end in a push (Chiefs by 3). 

KC winning on a late field goal in Patrick Mahomes’ first game in a long time is no sure thing if highly scrutinized LT Josh Simmons ends up missing this game, but we won’t have clarity on his status any time soon. 

For now, my not-terribly-informed take is that the Chiefs will outlast a Broncos squad that has a real chance to win the AFC West for the second year in a row. I’m tempted to go against the grain, but I just can’t quite talk myself into Bo Nix (who is also coming back from an injury) at +3 on the road — I would at 3.5, I think, but not at this number.

PICK: CHIEFS -3