Let me start with (more) condolences to anyone who listened to me and/or backed the favorites in either World Cup semifinal match earlier this week.

After Spain emphatically reminded everyone that soccer is a team sport on Tuesday by suffocating France, Lionel Messi and Argentina mounted a memorable rally in Atlanta on Wednesday, adding yet another heartbreaker to England’s growing list of excruciating World Cup disappointments.

The odds for Sunday’s must-see showdown (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on FOX) are below.

Before I go any further, I’d like to address the biggest question on social media in the buildup to this match: No, the photos you’ve seen of a young Messi and Spanish star Lamine Yamal as an infant are not courtesty of AI.

Check out the London Telegraph’s Luke Edwards’ full story about Messi giving Yamal a UNICEF-sponsored bath back in 2007.

If I start by noting that staying away from this match would be the smartest thing, betting-wise, that you could do on Sunday, would that absolve me for the following??

I realize that’s not how this works, but for better or worse, here are my thoughts and “best”¹ bets.

I could write at length about how a midfield like Spain’s (Rodri, Pedri, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo) especially in front a back line playing as well as Pedro Porro, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Marc Cucurella, will be too much for even Messi and this unkillable Argentina side.

Logically, that’s probably the right take. The numbers also back it up. Somehow, Spain giving up just 1 goal in seven matches doesn’t do justice to how dominant this team has been at shutting down the opposition.

Just three of the seven teams Spain has dispatched managed more than 1 shot on target. And while Portugal, Belgium and France each finished with 2 SOT vs. Spain, a number of those came in the final minutes.

Considering how few chances their opponents have generated against Spain, keeper Unai Simon hasn’t been lucky to record six clean sheets in seven tries. If anything, this defense was a bit unlucky to give up the one goal it did allow to Belgium. Charles De Ketelaere’s header was worth 0.13 xG, for what it’s worth, and his brilliant finish came on a day when his team mustered just 5 shots (2 on target).

That being said, how many comfortable are you betting against Messi after what he’s done in this tournament? It’s also worth noting here that in Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Leandro Paredes and Rodrigo De Paul (or Giuliano Simeone), Argentina boast the best opposing midfield that Rodri and Co. have had to contend with.

Whatever you think about how good that group is collectively at this point in the careers of Paredes and De Paul, there’s no denying their physicality or toughness.

Speaking of which, how many yellow cards will we see early in this match? A tightly officiated game will make an Argentina upset much less likely.

For as in control as Spain have been throughout this World Cup, we haven’t exactly seen one blowout after another. Spain not only memorably drew Cape Verde in group play, but it also failed to create any separation vs. Uruguay (albeit in a meaningless match wrapping up group play), Portugal (round of 16) or Belgium (quarterfinals).

In fact, Spain did not score the game-winning goals against Portugal or Belgium until the final minutes, and who knows when they get on the board vs. France if not for Lucas Digne’s inexcusable early penalty.

“Striker” Mikel Oyarzabal’s total output (5 goals) at this World Cup has left little to be desired, but how many opportunities will he get vs. rock-solid Argentina center backs Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero? If you’re a Spain fan, you have to hope that the answer is “way more than Harry Kane did on Wednesday.”

The two biggest weaknesses for Argentina are probably right back Nahuel Molina and left back Nicolas Tagliafico.

Molina has been beaten in the buildup for multiple goals at this tournament, most notably England’s opener by Anthony Gordon earlier this week. Molina earned FotMob ratings of 6.3 vs. Cape Verde, 7.0 vs. Egypt, 6.8 vs. Switzerland and 6.8 vs. England, FWIW.

Fortunately for Argentina, neither Spain left winger Alex Baena (1 goal on 4 shots on target, 1 assist) nor right winger Lamine Yamal (1 goal, 0 assists) has been a major catalyst, or finisher, at this tournament. Spain left back Marc Cucurella (2 assists) and right back Pedro Porro (2 goals, including the nail in France’s coffin) could create headaches for the underdogs in the final third, though.

What I’m trying to say is that Argentina have a real chance to badly lose the possession battle vs. Spain but stay in the game until the final minutes if La Roja fail to finish their chances.

We have already seen Spain finish with 0 goals on 2.1 xG vs. Cape Verde and 1 goal on 1.69 xG vs. Portugal in this tournament — not quite a red flag, per se, but a sign that a comfortable victory for the favorites is unlikely.

Speaking of breathing room, if Spain doesn’t have any going into the home stretch of this match, should we expect more late fireworks from Messi?

I’m not quite dumb enough to rule it out after what I saw on Wednesday (and also against Egypt, to name just one other example).

But although the heart says absolutely, ultimately, I expect Spain to limit Messi’s chances — and his touches — all the way through the final whistle.

The Spanish midfield, which has gotten a ton — but still not enough — love throughout the last week, is just that good. I also think fatigue is going to be a factor down the stretch for Paredes, Fernandez, Mac Allister, and whoever else Lionel Scaloni throws on late.

Terrified as any Spain fan or bettor should be of Messi, the favorites’ rest advantage after playing on Tuesday in a match that was hardly in doubt down the stretch is another solid reason to like Spain.

Argentina will be playing on less rest after a draining semifinal win on Wednesday. At this point, their tanks should be on empty, at least if we’re thinking about this logically.

That’s a whole lot of should, if and logically, though, isn’t it?

I’m probably beating a dead horse by now, so let’s get to the best bets.

For better or worse, shocker — I’m going with the chalk, even though Spain to raise the trophy is easy to resist at -150 or shorter.

The safest play that offers decent value, IMO, is to parlay Spain To Win The Cup + Argentina Under 1.5 Team Total (90 minutes) at -125 at DK (1 unit).

If you want to roll the dice, a couple solid parlay options worth, IDK, a sprinkle (0.10 or 0.25 units), include Spain Win (3-Way ML)/Under 2.5 (+330 at DK) and Spain Win to Zero (+270 at DK).

My favorite plus-money — but still realistic — player prop is Argentina Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez 4+ Saves — 90 minutes (+165 at DK).