Good morning, and happy World Cup Round of 32 Wednesday.

Watching the Mauricio Pochettino-led USMNT so far has been a very different experience than it was in 2022, and oddsmakers have taken notice.

More on that below, but first, I should probably explain A) why this newsletter is back after a year-plus hiatus and B) what to expect over the next few months.

If you missed my sign-off at Newsweek earlier this week, uh yeah, my time there is unfortunately up after a fun two-year run. I did notice a nice subscriber boost for this newsletter, so 🙏🙏🙏 to those who have joined me here after reading Newsweek Sports Betting.

But I have a ton to say about the World Cup, NBA free agency and the upcoming NFL and college football seasons, so you’re going to be hearing from me regularly via this newsletter while I figure everything out.

Speaking of figuring everything out, I got way too much right in my final piece for Newsweek not to brag about it here. You’re welcome if you took any of the following bets that I recommended on Morocco-Netherlands, which Morocco won in PKs:

In that same piece, I also misspelled the word “another,” and I summarized Draymond Green’s opt-out of his Golden State deal by saying that he is “leaving the Warriors.” Whoops, and whoops again, but I’m standing by my LeBron to the Warriors prediction.

Anyway, I’ve been on a bit of a heater with my World Cup bets, so let’s get into England vs. DR Congo and Senegal vs. Belgium before wrapping up with a bunch of thoughts on the USMNT, which has made a staggering leap from embarrassing¹ to incredible in two short years.

It’s hardly going out on a limb to predict that DR Congo (+600 to advance at DK) will park the bus against heavily favored England (-1100 to advance at DK) at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

The former had 25% possession vs. Portugal in its World Cup opener, a 1-1 draw vs. Portugal, and 36% possession vs. Colombia in a 1-0 loss, according to FotMob.

It would be a shocker to see DR Congo not set up in a low block and try to grind out a 0-0 or 1-1 result after 90 minutes.

England should be able to break through for a goal or two eventually, but it will likely be ugly.

There’s a ton of value in both halftime correct score: 0-0 (+185 at FanDuel) and Under (including extra time) 2.5 Total Goals (-105 at DK). As much as I like both of those plays, I’d recommend 0.5 units apiece here.

Pick: England to advance

Senegal vs. Belgium (4 p.m. ET on FS1) should be an even closer match. Belgium is -180 to advance at DK, compared to Senegal at +140. On the three-way moneyline, Belgium is priced at +115, with the draw at +230 and Senegal at +265.

Neither of these teams played great in group play. While Belgium boasts several big names, I’m not convinced this team will advance, much less win this one in 90 minutes.

I’m convinced that the more open to betting the draw you are, the better you do when betting on soccer, and this is another match where I like the draw at +230 (0.5 units) better than anything else on the board.

I’ll go with Belgium to find a way to advance as my prediction, but I’m not confident enough to put any money on that one.

It’s not often that a chant works as a subhead, but Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie and Co. have made it almost impossible to rationally analyze this squad.

USA is -800 (DK) to advance, while Bosnia is +500. That’s right, the odds are telling us that Bosnia is only slightly more likely to upset the USA than DR Congo is to take down England.

What a time to be a US soccer fan. Tonight’s clash between USA and Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara should be a party unlike anything we’ve seen in ages. That being said, no, I don’t think USA fans should be overlooking the underdogs in this match.

Bosnia-Herzegovina entered this tournament ranked just No. 64 in the world in the latest FIFA rankings, for what that’s worth.² This team drew Canada in its World Cup opener, was blown out by Switzerland and whipped Qatar, 3-1 to wrap up group play.

Bosnia has struggled to generate scoring opportunities, especially in open play, but it did limit Canada and Qatar’s chances on the other end.

USA is familiar with opponents that sit back and look to strike on the counter, and it impressed against both Paraguay and Australia, which bodes well for its chances tonight.

Cliche as this sounds, if the Americans are at their best, this should be a relatively comfortable victory. It’s also hard not to like USA’s chances given the boost that Canada and Mexico have gotten from playing games essentially at home.

I’m still not sold on the USA back line as a whole or goalie Matt Freese, but BH lacks the pieces — at least on paper — to expose the Americans there.

Top US sportsbooks have understandably been inundated with money on the home favorites, which makes value hard to come by as far as best bets tonight.

Given the uncertainty about how this team will play, USA -1.5 (+100 at DK) is easy to resist, IMO.

If anything, I’d go with 1 unit on Half Time/Full Time — USA/USA (-114 at FD). On the player props front, Weston McKennie To Score or Assist (+120 at FD) offers some value despite failing to record a goal or assist in group play.

McKennie has recorded a total of 1.41 xG+A (expected goals + expected assists) and he’s been credited with 2.38 chances created, per FotMob, through three games. I expect him to once again be one of the best players on the pitch tonight.

Shit, England-DR Congo kicks off in 2 minutes, so time to publish!