Summing up the 2026 FIFA World Cup to date in just a few words or a few seconds feels impossible.
Netherlands-Morocco and Croatia-Portugal, not to mention USA’s roller-coaster victory over Bosnia-Herzegovina, each featured a tournament’s worth of memorable moments.
But Lamine Yamal’s baby brother pretty much sums it up, doesn’t he? (This would be way cooler if it were embedded, but I tried).
Now, let’s get into those picks.
We’ll go deep on USA vs. Belgium on Monday, including the massive decision up top in the wake of the absurd red card Folarin Balogun got vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Australia vs. Egypt — Round of 32 (Fri, 2 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: AUS +130; EGYPT -165
3-way ML: AUS +260, DRAW +190, EGYPT +140
Egypt was much more impressive than Australia in group play.
Enough said.
Pick: Egypt to advance
Best bet: Egypt 3-Way ML (+140 at DK) — 1 unit
Argentina vs. Cape Verde — Round of 32 (6 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: ARG -3000 (!); CV +1100
3-way ML: ARG -650; DRAW +700; CV +1800
This is one of the most lopsided lines you’ll ever see.
Value’s tough to come by, but you can parlay Argentina Win + Over 3.5 at +170 at DK (0.5 units), if you insist on betting on this one.
I also like Vozinha 5+ Saves at -115 (1 unit)
Pick: Argentina to advance
Editor’s note: Whoops, another pick going out after a game has kicked off. Going to try to get my act together and stop doing this …
Colombia vs. Ghana — Round of 32 (9:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: COL -550; GHANA +400
3-way ML: COL -235; DRAW +330; GHANA +750
Yet another game where I can’t see anything other than the chalk outcome.
Am I oversimplifying today’s slate? Probably.
Is betting on all three favorites to cruise risky? Absolutely.
But I love what I’ve seen from Colombia in this tournament, especially in their most recent appearance, a 0-0 draw against Portugal that should have ended in a third straight group-stage victory. In fact, there’s a good case that Colombia is as likely as any non-favorite besides Morocco to go way further in this Cup than anyone expects.
For tonight, all of the following stand out to me as good bets:
Colombia win to zero (+110 at DK) — 1 unit
Half Time/Full Time — Colombia/Colombia (+105 at DK) — 1 unit
Spread: Colombia -1.5 (+125 at DK) — 0.5 units
James Rodriguez 1+ Goal Or Assist (+105 at DK) — 0.5 units
James is yet to record a goal or assist in this tournament, but I think he’s due. He had .58 xA vs. Portugal, per FotMob, FWIW.
Pick: Colombia to advance
Canada vs. Morocco QF — (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: CAN +210; MOR -265
3-way ML: CAN +390; DRAW +245; MOR -130
Canada deserves some love for handling South Africa in the Round of 32, but they’re going to be out of their depth in this one.
I was high on Morocco before they took down the Netherlands earlier this week, and they were even more impressive than I expected them to be.
Morocco is deadly on the counter, as you’ve probably heard, and this squad has an excellent keeper in Yassine Bounou. Both of those things were true when Achraf Hakimi and Co. reached the semis at the expense of Spain and Portugal four years ago.
But this year’s team also is much better at controlling possession, and Ismael Salibari is a force up top (and a big upgrade, with all due respect, on Youssef En-Nesyri).
Don’t be surprised if Morocco wins this match with some room to spare.
Pick: Morocco to advance
Best bet: Morocco win to zero (+165 at DK) — 0.5 units
Paraguay vs. France QF — (Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: PAR +850; FRANCE -1800
3-way ML: PAR +1700; DRAW +550; FRA -550
There’s not much to say about this one. The fact that it takes place at 5 p.m. ET on the 4th of July provides all the more reason to glaze right over it.
If you insist on betting on this match, France Win + Over 2.5 (-130 at DK) is probably the safest option cheaper than -150.
Pick: France to advance
Brazil vs. Norway QF — (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: BRA -230; NOR +185
3-way ML: BRA -120; DRAW +275; NOR +310
Finally, a game this weekend where I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset.
Dangerous as Erling Haaland, Antonio Nusa and Martin Odegaard are up top, Norway still seem like a less-than-balanced squad to me, but I wouldn’t rule out a close game and/or a draw through 90.
Let’s take a small stab at Over 3.5 Total Goals (+185 at DK) — 0.25 units
Pick: Brazil to advance
Mexico vs. England QF — (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX)
Odds (DK):
To advance: MEX +115; ENG -140
3-way ML: MEX +215; DRAW +220; ENG +140
Should we dare bet against Mexico at Azteca??
Or is rolling the dice on the underdogs to capitalize on an incredible homefield advantage at altitude and bounce one of the tournament favorites the better move?
Who knows … I’ll probably change my mind on the best way to tackle this match a few times between now and kickoff, but right now, I love Mexico to advance at +115.
Depending on how many beers I have on Saturday, I may or may not have more to say on this one on Sunday.
For now, though, I’m gonna join the masses who are banking on Azetca (and Mexico) > Harry Kane and an otherwise unimpressive England squad to date in this tournament.
Pick: Mexico to advance (somehow)
