The bad news about today’s France vs. Spain preview is that it’s hitting your inbox awfully close to kickoff (3 p.m. ET on FOX). That means that if you haven’t already placed your bets on this one, time is of the essence.

The good news is that at this point, we don’t have to speculate about who will be in each side’s starting XI, as that information is out there:

France’s expected 4-2-1-3 will feature Maignan; Digne, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Olise; Barcola, Mbappe, Dembele.

This does not make me feel better about Spain’s chances.

Before we knew who was lining up where for each side, this was feeling more and more — to me at least — like a favorable matchup for France. The return of Tchouameni shores up one of if the few, if any weaknesses, for France, while Ruiz > Pedri will make it tougher for Spain to dominate possession (but it will provide a boost up top, so who knows …)

Questioning Luis De La Fuente at this point is probably a terrible idea (yes, I’m about to do just that), but benching Pedri is certainly a roll of the dice, especially against France.

To advance (FD)

3-Way Moneyline (Graded after 90 minutes plus stoppage time)

After (over)thinking about this matchup ever since Spain got by Belgium last Friday, I’ve become more and more convinced that France will be back in the World Cup final for the third time in as many tries.

Spain certainly could get just enough from Lamine Yamal and Co. to outscore France, especially if they get an early goal, but Mbappe, Dembele, etc. feel inevitable at this point.

If there was better reason to expect another dominant afternoon by Yamal, who was the biggest reason Spain beat France at Euro 2024 and in last year’s Nations League, I’d be a lot more bullish on the underdogs.

But Yamal just doesn’t quite look 100%.

Struggling to get past Nuno Mendes was one thing; failing to create much against either Nelson Semedo, Maxim De Cuyper or Joaquin Seys did not bode well for his chances to terrorize France today. I also don’t see Alex Baena and/or Mikel Oyarzabal causing the French back line much trouble.

A big day off the bench by Euro 2024 standout Nico Williams shouldn’t shock anyone, but his absence from the starting lineup is a good sign he’s not fully fit.

For as good as Spain have been defensively, slowing down France’s loaded attack might be impossible. Mbappe needs no introduction at this point, but in Michael Olise, France also boast the best player at this World Cup at creating chances.

Olise leads all players in assists, with 5, and he is second in both big chances created (5) and expected assists (2.4), behind only Lionel Messi, per FotMob. Dembele, who won the Ballon d’Or last year, is arguably France’s third-most dangerous attacker right now.

If Spain can somehow shut down Mbappe and prevent Olise from getting on the ball, then sure, they could once again take down France.

But to me, the most likely outcome here is Spain coming up a bit short against one of the deeper attacking World Cup teams we’ve seen in a long time.

I’ll sound like a casual for this, but this matchup reminds me a lot of … Michigan vs. Arizona in the Final Four a few months ago. Hand up: I started thinking about this after college hoops must-follow Ryan Hammer tweeted this comp last week.

Hear me out: Sure, on paper, there were relative weaknesses on that Wolverines squad if you squinted hard enough, and they were facing a good enough Arizona team that they needed to be at their best to win that game.

But questioning a team with as much firepower as Michigan was clearly the wrong play in hindsight (yes, I had money on Arizona in that game 🤦‍♂️). Actually, it was obvious after approximately 10 minutes, but I digress.

Anyway, France (like that college team in a totally different sport a few months ago) just has too many ways to win today for me to bet against them.

Not taking France on the moneyline at +150 is probably just overthinking it, but the plus-money play I like best today is a two-leg parlay at FanDuel.

If you expect another low-scoring first-half (remember, seven of the 12 total Round of 16 and QF matches in this World Cup were tied 0-0 — 5/8 in the R16 and 2/4 in the QF), then parlaying France to qualify (-140) and First Half Under 1.5 Goals (-280) at +136 is a safe (but still plus-money) way to attack a match that could go in any number of directions.

And that’s coming from someone who’s struggling to see anyone taking down France. If Norway and Switzerland could draw England and Argentina, respectively, that’s enough for me to think twice about taking France to win in 90.

Pick: France to advance (Final score: 2-1)

Best bet: Parlay France to qualify + 1H u2.5 (+136 at FanDuel) — 1 unit