The hype around tonight’s USA vs. Belgium World Cup Round of 16 match in Seattle (8 p.m. ET on FOX) reached another level on Sunday afternoon, when FIFA announced that Folarin Balogun will not miss tonight’s game for his Round of 32 red card vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, after all.

There’s plenty I could say about FIFA making everything up as they go¹ … For example: at this point, even the NCAA looks like a paragon of logic and consistency compared to FIFA. But while FIFA’s always-baffling SOP is not necessarily a feature in general, in this case, I approve.

Though we shouldn’t rule out another plot twist or two in this saga, for now, I’m going to preview tonight’s game under the assumption that Balogun will be in action, whether the Belgian FA and UEFA like it or not.

First, here’s what to watch over the next two days as a memorable 2026 World Cup Round of 16 wraps up.

Note: the odds below refer to the “to advance” market at FD for each game

I like Spain to beat Portugal in 90, which is available at -110 at FD.

*Spoiler: I’m going to be all over both Argentina and Colombia tomorrow

Below are the three-way moneyline odds (based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time) at FD for tonight’s game. The implied probability for each outcome is listed in parentheses:

It’s hard to overstate how big the Balogun news is for the USMNT. This team has a ton going for it right now, but Balogun’s clinical finishing is right at the top of the list.

For the first time in this tournament, though, Mauricio Pochettino’s team is facing an opponent with more talent, at least on paper.

Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Youri Tielemans, Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard need no introduction to full-time soccer fans. It’s also worth noting that the USA squad’s total market value is estimated at 385.65 million euros by Transfermarkt, while Belgium’s WC roster is valued at 547.5 million euros by Transfermarkt.

But given how far De Bruyne and Lukaku, to name a few of those players, are from their primes, this is hardly a “USA vs. Netherlands in 2022” situation in terms of talent disparity.

The other reason — besides homefield advantage, of course — behind USA’s status as the betting favorite over a Belgian team that entered this tournament ranked No. 9 in the world is the latter’s shaky form so far at this World Cup.

After drawing Egypt and Iran, then blowing out New Zealand in group play, Belgium trailed Senegal for 85-plus minutes in the Round of 16. The Belgians rallied with goals in the 86’, 89’ and 120+5’ to stay alive, but they have been nowhere near dominant in three of their first four games at this World Cup.

If we disregard the battle between the mostly second-choice USA XI that faced Turkey, tonight marks the first clash between the Americans and an opponent that will look to possess the ball and attack (as opposed to sitting back and hoping for something on the counter).

USA dominated possession vs. Paraguay (65% possession) and Australia (62%), and it would have finished with a high percentage vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina if not for Balogun’s red card in the 64th minute.

Assuming tonight’s game is wide-open, USA should be able to generate plenty of scoring opportunities.

Christian Pulisic was at his best off the bench against Turkey, even while nursing a calf injury, with 3 shots (2 on target) in just 32 minutes, reminding everyone how dangerous he can be with space to run and create. He was also credited with a team-high .58 xG (expected goals) in that contest as well as .28 xA (expected assists).

Against Bosnia-Herzegovina, Pulisic finished with just 47 total touches in 88 minutes, with only 3 touches in the B-H box, 0 chances created and 0 shots (on-target or otherwise).

Based on Senegal’s success generating opportunities vs. Belgium — Senegal finished that game with 3.58 xG, 19 total shots (5 on target) and 6 (!) big chances — I expect Pulisic, Balogun, Sergiño Dest, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman to collectively produce at least a couple of goals tonight.

The question is whether Alex Freeman, Chris Richards and Tim Ream can protect goalie Matt Freese well enough for a two- or three-goal night to send the Americans through.

I would have never imagined in early June that I’d say this, but I trust Alex Freeman to hold his own vs. Jeremy Doku tonight. The Man City winger’s speed makes him a headache for even the best defenders in the Premier League, but Freeman has been playing so well that I don’t expect Doku — who has been quiet at this World Cup — to terrorize the American back line.

Based on all the chaos we saw in Mexico vs. England last night, I’m hesitant to invest heavily in any market in this game, but I love the following 2-leg parlay at DraftKings (0.5 units):

That’s right, I like USA to advance.

Before yesterday’s Balogun bombshell, I was getting closer and closer to picking the Americans, even without their star striker.

I’m not sure whether was A) patriotism, B) (well-founded) skepticism about a Belgium squad that hasn’t looked convincing in this tournament or C) a bit of both.

Regardless, with him in the lineup, I’m sold.