Warning: I’m going to run through a couple of pieces of housekeeping before diving into England vs. Argentina this afternoon (3 p.m. ET on FOX).

Actually, let’s not bury the lede too deep: At DK, England is -120 to advance, compared to Argentina at +100. FD, on the other hand, currently prices England at -130 and Argentina at +112.

DK’s 3-way moneyline offers England at +165, the draw at +190 and Argentina at +200. FanDuel’s odds in this market are identical, while bet365 lists England at +162, the draw at +187 and Argentina at +210.

When I’m as wrong as I was about Spain-France, I’m going to own it (🤞 that this won’t be a regular issue).

Did Spain’s dominance yesterday mean that regardless of who they face in the World Cup final on Sunday, they’re going to roll??

It’s too early to say. For what it’s worth, though, La Roja are now -150 (implied probability: 60%) at FanDuel to win the World Cup.

One other note on Spain: after his incredible performance yesterday, I went ahead and sprinkled Rodri to win the Golden Ball (best player) at +350 at bet365. Is it just me, or is the captain of the clear favorites at longer than 3-to-1 to win this award hard to resist??

At the moment, every other major sportsbook offers Golden Boot odds (top scorer), but bet365 was the only place where I could bet on this year’s Golden Ball winner.

Previous winners of the Golden Ball include Messi in ‘22, Luka Modric in ‘18, Messi in ‘14, Diego Forlan in ‘10 and Zidane in ‘06. That shows that you don’t have to win the World Cup to win the award. In fact, Messi in ‘22 was the only member of a winning team on that list. Still, I love Rodri’s chances, especially at +350.

One more thing before we dive into England vs. Argentina: if you’re enjoying this newsletter, please help me spread the word by sharing this link (or using the button below).

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If you’re new here, check out the explainer I wrote when this newsletter launched in 2024.

I’m publishing today’s semifinal preview less than 20 minutes before kickoff, so this will hit your inbox before Lionel Scaloni and Thomas Tuchel finalize their lineups.

Right now, there’s enough smoke around Argentine midfielder Rodrigo De Paul being replaced by either Exequiel Palacios, Nicolas Gonzalez or Giuliano Simeone to expect a change there.

It’s also unclear whether Nahuel Molina or Gonzalo Montiel will start at right back. Molina, for the record, has started four of six games at this World Cup, including all three knockout matches.

For England, the biggest questions are whether Declan Rice and Reece James will be able to play 90 minutes or close to it. James has battled injuries throughout this World Cup but played well off the bench vs. Norway, while Rice left at halftime while battling illness.

At this point, assuming James and Rice are fit, expect England’s 4-2-3-1 to feature Pickford; James, Konsa, Guehi (or Stones), O’Reilly; Anderson, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.

One last bit of food for thought on the lineups: How many Argentina players would you definitely include in a combined XI for this match??

For me, Messi would be the only “lock” right now, but I’d probably throw in GK Emiliano Martinez, MF Enzo Fernandez, CB Lisandro Martinez and CB Cristian Romero as well …

ESPN’s Jamie Barton’s combined XI today includes five Argentina players (Lisandro Martinez, Romero, Fernandez, Alvarez, Messi), while Fox Sports’ soccer writers’ combined XI also features five Argentinian playes (Emiliano Martinez, Romero, Fernandez, Mac Allister and Messi).

This late in a World Cup, it’s tough to call a matchup a coin flip, but A) that’s how oddsmakers have this one priced and B) how else do you describe England vs. Argentina?

Betting against Messi feels like a terrible idea, especially considering how many close games (including several in extra time and/or PKs) this Argentina squad have won while raising major trophies in 2021 (Copa America), 2022 (World Cup) and 2024 (Copa America).

But other than Messi and center backs Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero, Argentina’s lineup strikes me as at least a bit overmatched this afternoon. I’d be especially surprised to see England lose if Saka, Rice and James are at their best (those are three big hypotheticals at this point, though).

That being said, England’s showings against DR Congo and Norway made it hard to bank on this team beating Messi and Argentina in 90 minutes.

Have I mentioned that nothing would surprise me today?

While I think England’s roster is (much?) better top to bottom — and we saw how betting based on France’s star power went yesterday — the only plays I really like are:

England’s best player at this tournament, with four huge goals in his last two matches, at longer than 2-to-1?? Yes, please.

I’m also placing a quarter-unit on the draw at +190. Remember, Argentina needed extra time vs. both Cape Verde and Switzerland, and it trailed Egypt 2-0 late in the Round of 16 before pulling off a historic rally.

England has also been tied after 90 plus stoppage time twice at this World Cup.