It’s time to get back into the swing of posting regularly.
Before I forget, I’m going to try to remember to include a link to my bettor profile at Juice Reel in all these posts.
Was I the only sicko who (mostly) enjoyed the hell out of Week 0?1
UNC-TCU was hardly an instant classic (note: the under and the underdog in that game have come through in three straight years), but it was certainly competitive from start to finish.
Later in the day, after NC State coach Dave Doeren became the last college football fan in America to realize that Virginia QB Beau Pribula likes to run the football2, FSU had its moments vs. New Mexico State but came nowhere close to covering as a massive favorite, Hawaii and Stanford delivered a thriller (and a heartbreaker for anyone who had Hawaii on the spread), and Memphis made a resounding statement in Las Vegas.
What does it all mean for Week 1 and beyond??
Let’s get into it.
Memphis is legit
… and the Tigers are worth backing in Week 1 vs. Ark. State, Week 2 at Boise State (Saturday, September 12 @ 6 p.m. ET on USA) and beyond.
You heard it here first (I think): LB Zach Ruffin and D-linemen Elijah Kinsler (2.5 sacks) and J’Mond Tapp (1 sack) are going to cause Boise State’s Maddux Madsen at least as much trouble as Jackson Arnold had with that front seven on Saturday.
Memphis struggled on D in the first half, but dominated down the stretch, finishing with six (!) sacks and 11.5 TFL against a dangerous Dan Mullen-led UNLV offense.
If you watched Boise QB Maddux Madsen against USF, Notre Dame and/or Nevada last year, you’re probably already with me on Memphis to take down Boise on the road in two weeks.
Bigger picture, the question is whether to take Memphis to win the American (+700 at DK) or make the 12-team College Football Playoff (+1000 at DK). I don’t blame you for waiting to see how Memphis-Boise goes in a couple of weeks, but personally, I’m already incredibly tempted by both of those …
College Football Week 0 📈
In addition to Memphis, I was also impressed by …
Beau Pribula and Virginia: Even when they face opponents who are aware that a heavy dose of Pribula is coming, the former Penn State and Mizzou QB and UVA’s veteran OL are going to be a handful. I’m not ready to pencil the Cavs in for a return to the ACC title game in Charlotte, but it shouldn’t shock anyone.
UNC’s defense: Most of us spent 2025 laughing at Bill Belichick and the Heels, but that defense quietly didn’t suck down the stretch last fall. It was just one game, but that unit started 2026 off strong, holding a (usually) good offense to less than 4 yards per play (!). We’ll find out soon whether the Carolina defense is as stout as it looked vs. TCU — Carolina plays Clemson on Sept. 19, Notre Dame on Oct. 3 and Pitt on Oct. 10.
North Dakota State: After years of dominating FCS, the Bison will be a problem in their first year in the Mountain West. Against Jacksonville State last Saturday, NDSU ran for 209 yards on 44 carries while holding Jax State to 85 on 31. 👀: NDSU is currently +750 to make the CFP and the favorite (+245) to win the Mountain West at DraftKings.
NMSU QB Trey Hedden is for real. Ask any FSU fan. Does that make the Aggies a threat in CUSA? I have no clue.
Speaking of takes no one asked for: Southern Utah’s Will Burns gave FCS juggernaut Montana all they could handle. I honestly have no clue how easy it is to find player props for FCS games, but I’m on the case (stay tuned …)
College Football Week 0 📉
I’m worried about Micah Alejado and Hawaii. They won nine games a year ago, but if the Week 0 heartbreaker vs. Stanford was anything to go by, every degenerate’s favorite 5-foot-10 gunslinger doesn’t have much help around him.
Beating New Mexico State fairly comfortably didn’t necessarily raise red flags in Tallahassee, but it was hardly a resounding season opener for under-fire FSU coach Mike Norvell.
NC State: 🤮🤮🤮. Getting thumped like that in a game you had all offseason to prepare for would have been embarrassing in, IDK, Year 4, Year 7 or Year 10 under Dave Doeren… Doing that, in Year 14, though?!? Truly humiliating and inexcusable (and I swear I’d be saying as much even if I wasn’t personally offended).
Also Fun: QB Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
This is admittedly far from foolproof (see: Jaden Craig, Alex Orji, Beau Pribula, among others, failing to find paydirt).
That being said, betting on running QBs to find the end zone salvaged an otherwise ugly day for my Week 0 card.
Yes, there was more than a bit of dumb luck involved with Ashton Daniels first TD scorer (+650 at FD) cashing for me in FSU-NMSU. But between him and Will Wilson (NCSU’s backup QB/designated short-yardage man) at +170 at FD, Saturday was the latest example of why I love backing running quarterbacks on the ATD/ATTD markets.
In Week 1, the best running QBs — like Utah’s Devon Dampier — are going to be priced accordingly (prohibitively??) in these markets. This is nevertheless as fun and high-upside as it gets when it comes to college football player props.
Don’t be surprised if OCs all over the country draw up QB runs in the red zone this weekend to give their signal-callers an early confidence boost.
Few books offer these markets at the moment, but off the top of my head, WVU’s Michael Hawkins Jr. (vs. Coastal), Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (vs. Western Michigan) and Auburn’s Byrum Brown (vs. Baylor) are all worth checking out once these markets become available this weekend.
1 Not even a new low for an unnamed program I may or may not care way too much about could ruin it …
2 seriously, wtf
